Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
35% Chance
International pressure intensifies after the hospital damage, with the UN, Oman, and the United States pushing Riyadh and the Houthis back toward cease-fire mechanics. Saudi Arabia has an incentive to contain reputational damage and prevent further Houthi missile attacks on its cities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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