Possible scenario
Netanyahu Retains Power
30%
−0.1%
Netanyahu’s Likud and its religious-nationalist partners win enough seats to extend his tenure despite public anger over Oct 7. This remains plausible because the right-wing bloc has a cohesive voter base and coalition discipline, even after wartime accountability disputes.
What it moves
- Energy+0.4%
- Industrials+0.3%
- Market volatility
- Oil prices
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