Possible scenario
Slow Technical Bargaining
28% Chance
Iran keeps engaging through Qatar but avoids a clear yes-or-no answer on the US nuclear roadmap. This is a realistic middle path because Tehran can preserve leverage while Doha prevents the process from collapsing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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