Possible scenario
Managed Diplomatic Thaw
42% Chance
Iran and Qatar use the presidential messages to keep the US roadmap alive and lower the temperature after the March missile-related rupture. Doha remains the main channel because both Tehran and Washington can frame the process as indirect and reversible.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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