Capacity Cycle Cools

10%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The market begins to question whether the AI infrastructure buildout is becoming too front-loaded. Carrier’s Texas site still has strategic value, but investors worry that industry capacity may arrive just as customer growth normalizes.

What it moves

Industrials−0.5%
Technology−0.3%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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