Possible scenario
Wider Breach Found
20% Chance
A more severe path is that forensic work finds actual copying, imaging, or attempted exploitation of election equipment or software. Even if vote totals are not shown to have changed, confirmation of unauthorized access would elevate the story from political misconduct to election-infrastructure compromise.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Finance -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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