Possible scenario
Fallout Is Contained
30% Chance
The administration and DHS career officials contain the scandal by framing the request as an unauthorized or preliminary inquiry that did not lead to operational access. This path is plausible if logs, state officials, or CISA records show no confirmed intrusion into certified voting infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.