Possible scenario
Investigations Expand
35% Chance
The most likely path is a formal investigative track involving the Justice Department, DHS inspector general, and congressional committees. The allegation is serious enough to trigger subpoenas and document preservation, but initial public evidence may not prove that votes were changed or that senior White House officials authorized the request.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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