Possible scenario
EU Holds Presence
42% Chance
The EU maintains a symbolic and operational presence in Kyiv despite the Northern Bridge strike, judging that evacuation would reward Russian coercion. Security protocols tighten, but the mission remains active and Russia avoids direct strikes on diplomatic sites.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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