Possible scenario
Western Partial Pullback
20% Chance
Some Western governments conclude that the bridge strikes materially raise security risk and begin limited relocations, even as Brussels keeps a senior presence in Kyiv. This creates a split Western posture: deterrence through EU symbolism, caution through allied drawdowns.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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