Possible scenario
Russia Intensifies Strikes
28% Chance
Moscow interprets the EU refusal to evacuate as a challenge and continues strikes on Kyiv transport and energy infrastructure. The most likely escalation remains targeted infrastructure attacks rather than intentional strikes on diplomatic compounds.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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