Possible scenario
Refinery Campaign Continues
28% Chance
The proposed 100-day halt fails to produce immediate reciprocal commitments, and Ukraine keeps pressure on Russian refining capacity. Kyiv calculates that repeated strikes on Ryazan and similar facilities create leverage over both Moscow and Starlink negotiations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Utilities -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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