Possible scenario
Moratorium Takes Shape
34% Chance
Ukraine, the US, and intermediaries use Zelenskyy's 100-day signal to test a reciprocal pause on energy infrastructure attacks. Moscow avoids formally conceding but may accept a de facto halt if Russian refinery outages and Starlink access become linked in practice.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
- +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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