Possible scenario
Omani Mediation Holds
20% Chance
Oman, the UN envoy for Yemen, and possibly Washington push both sides back toward a pause after the Riyadh attack. Saudi Arabia has an incentive to avoid prolonged attacks on airports and energy infrastructure, while the Houthis can claim they restored deterrence.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Consumer Services +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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