Possible scenario
Contained Retaliatory Cycle
45% Chance
Saudi Arabia continues heavy airstrikes against Houthi launch sites, command nodes, and storage depots, while the Houthis attempt further symbolic attacks. Damage inside Saudi Arabia remains limited, keeping the confrontation dangerous but geographically contained.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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