Possible scenario
Expanded Houthi Campaign
25% Chance
The Houthis broaden their campaign from symbolic attacks on Riyadh to repeated strikes on Saudi energy, aviation, and logistics nodes. This would revive memories of the 2019 Abqaiq attack, though at a smaller immediate scale unless sustained damage occurs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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