Possible scenario
Managed Fragile Passage
30% Chance
Oil flows remain high, but the route depends on intensive naval escorts, inspection protocols, and ad hoc understandings with Tehran. Markets accept that barrels are moving, while retaining a smaller geopolitical risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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