Possible scenario
Formal Diplomatic Freeze
15% Chance
Washington, Tehran, and Gulf intermediaries convert the de facto reopening into a limited maritime-security arrangement. The deal does not resolve the broader conflict, but it reduces the near-term probability of another Hormuz closure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.5%
- Consumer Services +1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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