Possible scenario
Durable Flow Normalization
45% Chance
Hormuz traffic remains at or above pre-war levels as U.S.-led naval escorts, Gulf state coordination, and Iranian restraint keep the corridor open. Markets increasingly treat the June-September disruption as resolved, shifting focus from security premiums to inventories and demand.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.0%
- Consumer Services +1.4%
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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