Possible scenario
Funding Threat Escalates
18% Chance
The administration interprets the court order narrowly and threatens or begins withholding adjacent DHS-controlled funding, such as preparedness or cybersecurity grants. That would increase legal risk and political uncertainty, though still well below a macro-crisis threshold.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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