Appeals Narrow Block

25% Chance

DOJ moves quickly to the D.C. Circuit and wins at least a partial pause of the district court order. That lets DHS revive some pressure on states, though the ruling is likely limited rather than a full endorsement of the funding threats.

Initial impacts

Market volatility Up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
10-year Treasury yield Down

Secondary impacts

Finance -0.1%

Portfolio impact

S&P 500-0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Appeals Narrow Block

Initial impacts

Secondary impacts

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Portfolio