Possible scenario
Injunction Holds
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the district court's block remains operative while DHS and DOJ decide how far to press the confrontation. DHS continues public threats but avoids an immediate funding cutoff that could trigger contempt proceedings or a broader federalism fight.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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