Possible scenario
Red Sea Disruption
25% Chance
The conflict shifts from airstrikes inside Yemen to renewed attacks on commercial shipping and tankers around Bab el-Mandeb and the southern Red Sea. This path is plausible because the Houthis have already seized Red Sea coastal positions and have used shipping attacks to impose costs on Saudi Arabia and its partners.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Industrials +0.8%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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