Possible scenario
Mediated De-escalation
20% Chance
Oman, the UN envoy, and back-channel Saudi-Houthi contacts move quickly to prevent the renewed fighting from destroying the long-term cease-fire track. This scenario remains realistic because Riyadh has strong incentives to protect Vision 2030 investment flows and the Houthis may prefer leverage to all-out escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Consumer Services +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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