Possible scenario
Contained Air War
40% Chance
Saudi Arabia and its coalition partners continue airstrikes around Sanaa, Hodeidah, and Houthi missile sites, while the Houthis answer with drones and missiles that mostly fail or are intercepted. This is the most likely path because both Riyadh and the Houthis have incentives to signal resolve without triggering a wider Gulf war that threatens oil infrastructure and shipping lanes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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