Possible scenario
Kharkiv Front Escalates
18% Chance
Russia expands pressure on Kharkiv with heavier drone and missile salvos and limited ground probing north or east of the city. This would still fall short of a new nationwide invasion phase, but it would modestly raise geopolitical risk premia over the next trading sessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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