Possible scenario
Air Defense Response
25% Chance
Kyiv uses the Kharkiv strike to press the United States, Germany, and other NATO members for additional Patriot, NASAMS, IRIS-T, and drone-interceptor supplies. The most likely response is incremental rather than transformational, with political debate continuing in Washington and European capitals.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- RTX+0.6%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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