Possible scenario
Continued Kharkiv Attrition
45% Chance
Russia continues using Iranian-designed Shahed-type drones and missiles to pressure Kharkiv without a decisive operational shift. Ukraine's regional authorities expand shelters and curfews, while the Ukrainian Air Force prioritizes scarce air-defense interceptors around civilian districts.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- RTX+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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