Possible scenario
Renewed Military Escalation
20% Chance
The prior anti-ship missile launch means escalation risk is still material despite the latest flow rebound. A direct tanker strike or a U.S.-Iran naval exchange would quickly reprice crude, shipping risk and broader risk assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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