Possible scenario
Fragile Stop-Start Traffic
30% Chance
Flows remain well above the lows seen after Iran's traffic cut, but shipping is uneven as tanker masters, insurers and naval escorts react to new threats. This would keep a modest risk premium in crude without producing a full market shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Industrials -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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