Possible scenario
Flows Keep Normalizing
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the latest rebound in crude flows reflects a tacit deconfliction pattern rather than a one-day anomaly. Iran, the U.S. Navy, Gulf exporters and tanker operators all have strong incentives to avoid a full closure while signaling resolve.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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