GOP Civil War

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The midterm defeat turns Iran and Israel into the central Republican factional fight. Vance, Tucker Carlson-aligned activists, evangelical leaders, and major pro-Israel donors compete to define whether the party returns to restraint or doubles down on Netanyahu.

What it moves

Industrials−0.5%
Finance−0.1%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?