Democratic Oversight

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The Democratic sweep turns the Iran war and Israel policy into the first major oversight target of the new Congress. Hearings, subpoenas, and appropriations fights constrain the administration even if Trump retains formal commander-in-chief authority.

What it moves

Industrials−1.2%
Business Services−0.2%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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