Possible scenario
Sustained Infrastructure War
40% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of the current pattern: Ukraine keeps using long-range drones against Russian refineries, depots, and air-defense nodes, while Russia intensifies attacks on Ukrainian power infrastructure. Both sides absorb damage without a decisive military or diplomatic break.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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