Possible scenario
Military Escalation Risk
20% Chance
Russia could frame the 350-drone raid as a major escalation and respond with more aggressive military, cyber, or air-defense measures. The base case remains contained within Ukraine and Russia, but the tail risk is a spillover incident involving NATO territory or airspace.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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