Possible scenario
Russian Fuel Disruption
25% Chance
Ukraine's larger drone salvos increasingly hit refining capacity, fuel storage, or pipeline-adjacent infrastructure inside Russia. Even if crude exports continue, product-market tightness becomes a more plausible short-term concern.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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