Possible scenario
Investigation Broadens Network
25% Chance
The criminal investigation produces more concrete allegations about Russian intelligence direction, including communications, payments, or travel links. This strengthens Estonia’s case with allies but still points to covert sabotage rather than open conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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