Possible scenario
Hybrid Pressure Increases
20% Chance
Russia or Russia-linked actors answer the attribution with more deniable pressure, such as cyber probing, disinformation, or additional vandalism. The risk remains below the threshold of military confrontation but raises Baltic security anxiety.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Technology +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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