Possible scenario
Contained Diplomatic Escalation
45% Chance
Estonia keeps the response primarily diplomatic after formally attributing the Milrem arson to Russian-directed actors. Tallinn coordinates with NATO and the EU, but avoids measures that would imply direct military escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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