Possible scenario
US Claim Substantiated
28% Chance
Additional AIS, satellite, and port-loading data largely backs the U.S. assertion that Hormuz flows have returned to or exceeded pre-war levels. Oil-risk premiums unwind as the market concludes that the private tracker dispute reflected timing, classification, or dark-fleet measurement gaps.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.1%
- Consumer Services +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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