Possible scenario
Trackers Mostly Vindicated
42% Chance
Private vessel-tracking data remains broadly consistent with Gulf exports being materially below pre-war levels, forcing Washington to qualify Hegseth's statement. Markets treat the dispute as evidence that supply normalization is incomplete, but not as proof of a renewed blockade.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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