Possible scenario
Disruption Re-Escalates
20% Chance
The data dispute becomes part of a wider escalation, with Tehran challenging U.S. claims and increasing pressure on shipping near the Strait. Traders focus less on measurement methodology and more on renewed interruption risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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