Possible scenario
Limited Regional Outbreak
25% Chance
The outbreak expands beyond the first quarantined hospitals but remains a regional Russian public-health emergency. Neighboring countries increase border screening, and Washington focuses on consular guidance, intelligence collection, and coordination with WHO rather than sanctions or emergency measures.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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