Possible scenario
Geopolitical Escalation
20% Chance
The health event becomes entangled with the long-running U.S.-Russia dispute over biological-weapons allegations and disinformation. Even if the medical risk remains limited, the diplomatic risk premium rises because Moscow and Washington may accuse each other of withholding information or politicizing the outbreak.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Finance -0.7%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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