Possible scenario
Contained Russian Incident
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that U.S. officials conclude the Russian cases remain localized in Siberia and do not require a major international response. Plague is treatable with antibiotics, and the current evidence points more to a contained health-security incident than a global outbreak.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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