Possible scenario
Limited Diplomacy Revives
25% Chance
Despite Rubio’s public pessimism, back-channel talks continue because both sides have incentives to manage battlefield costs before winter. The result is not a comprehensive peace deal, but limited agreements on prisoners, energy infrastructure or Black Sea shipping.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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