Possible scenario
Escalation Without Breakthrough
20% Chance
The failure of diplomacy creates room for renewed Russian pressure through missiles, drones and sanctions brinkmanship, but not a direct NATO-Russia conflict. Markets treat this as a material worsening of the risk environment, though still below a crisis regime-change shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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