Possible scenario
Frozen War Persists
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Washington, Kyiv and Moscow fail to convert envoy-level contacts into a ceasefire track. Front lines remain largely static, sanctions stay in place, and Ukraine depends on continued U.S. and European military support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.