Possible scenario
Violent Escalation
18% Chance
A less likely but credible path is a replay of the 2023 unrest dynamic, with arrests of Khan family members and PTI workers triggering larger-than-expected mobilization. If casualties, arson, or attacks on security installations occur, the state response would harden quickly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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