Possible scenario
Managed Protest Proceeds
28% Chance
Authorities may decide that a tightly managed protest is less risky than a sweeping crackdown that could amplify PTI’s grievance narrative. Imran Khan remains jailed, but PTI leaders are allowed a controlled show of strength under heavy police presence and time limits.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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